Get ready for 3-pointers. Given that Villanova hit a Final Four record 18 3-pointers against Kansas on Saturday and Michigan hit 14 from three-point range in the Sweet 16 against Texas A&M, it’s a bet that this game could be a 3-point content. The team that hits – and defends – the 3-point line best will be in business.
FINAL FOUR 2018: Villanova ties 3-point record in first half, break it less than 2 minutes into second
What is the target number? First one to double-digit 3-pointers will be in good shape. Here is a breakdown why:
If Michigan hits the 3
The Wolverines hit 10 or more three-pointers in 14 games this season, including that 14 of 24 performance in a 99-72 blowout against the Aggies on 99-72. Michigan had an 11-3 record in those games. The three losses were both regular-season games against Purdue and a loss to North Carolina in the ACC-Big Ten challenge.
If Michigan can’t defend the 3
Michigan is 1-2 when they allow 10 three pointers, and again, that includes the two-losses to the Boilermakers. Both of those games were entertaining, and the Wolverines made the adjustment in the Big Ten championship by limiting the Boilermakers to 4 of 17 three-point shooting. That would be a best-case scenario against the Wildcats.
If Villanova hits the 3
Villanova is 23-2 when it hits 10 or more 3-pointers in a game. That included a record-setting effort against the Jayhawks in which the Wildcats hit 18 of 40 from 3-point range. Villanova had its off night in a 4 of 24 shooting effort against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight, but the Wildcats still won that game 71-59.
If Villanova can’t defend the 3
The Wildcats are 4-2 in games where they allowed 10 or more 3-pointers in a single game. Those losses came on Dec. 30, 2017 against Butler, who hit 15 of 22 in a 101-93 overtime thriller; and Feb. 24, 2018 against Creighton, who hit 12 of 29 from 3-point range in an 89-83 shootout.
If both teams are on …
Both teams were 1-2 when they make 10 three-pointers or more and give up 10 three-pointers or more in the same game.
NCAA Tournament shooting
Michigan is 38 of 120 (31.7) from 3-point range in the tournament, but opponents are 18 of 75 (24.0) from 3-point range. Villanova is 66 of 156 (42.3) from 3-point range in the tournament and has allowed 31 of 109 (28.4) from 3-point range.
Bottom line
While the attention is on how both teams shoot, its worth knowing both teams are good at defending the 3-pointer in the tournament. The numbers still favor Villanova, and Michigan can’t afford to be completely off from 3-point range, not against a team that shot the lights out Saturday.
