This logic is flawed. Throughout the 1990s, as Taiwan grew more democratic, its relations with the mainland instead progressively deteriorated. The Taiwanese model–developmental authoritarianism maturing into a new democracy–inspired many mainland elites in the 1980s. But as democracy has allowed pro-independence forces to gain strength, the allure of the Taiwan model has dimmed. Emotionally wedded to the appeal of Chinese nationalism, even progressive Chinese elites cannot accept the idea that a democratic Taiwan would split from the motherland. Politically, democracy in Taiwan has also taken a less reassuring turn. Pro-independence politicians in Taipei have found that tapping into their people’s fear and loathing of the authoritarian mainland can mobilize support and win votes.
Taiwanese democracy now thrives on anti-China sentiments. Reforms to deepen democracy–such as repeated constitutional revisions and the public referendum Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has fought to hold on March 20–have become indistinguishable from acts of defiance against Beijing. This intermingling of Taiwanese nationalism and democracy has, perversely, made it harder to transplant the Taiwan model to the mainland. Faced with the specter of Taiwanese independence, no leaders in Beijing are eager to contemplate political reform.
Hong Kong’s democrats must heed this lesson–as well as China’s fragile collective mind-set. While many ordinary Chinese would love to see Hong Kong become more democratic, such sympathy will evaporate if the process turns into a platform for bashing China, as has happened in Taiwan. A deft manipulator of nationalist sentiment, the Chinese government has declared that only “patriots” can rule Hong Kong and labeled as a “traitor” Martin Lee, Hong Kong’s leading democracy advocate. Of course, given Beijing’s resistance, only international pressure can tip the balance in favor of pro-democracy forces in Hong Kong. But at the same time, such external involvement touches raw nationalist nerves in China and may risk undermining the legitimacy of the democrats.
We should not devalue the progress of democracy in Taiwan and Hong Kong; the development is worth applauding simply because it makes them better places to live. But expecting this process to influence the political opening of the mainland, a country of 1.3 billion people, is unrealistic. Only democratization within China can transform the country–and Beijing’s relationships with its two troublesome neighbors.
